Research

My research examines partisan dynamics in electoral authoritarian regimes, as well as how authoritarianism influences international cooperation. Specifically, my expertise focuses on electoral violence, election boycotts, and election monitoring. I combine statistical analysis with qualitative field research, including fieldwork in Turkey and Uganda.

Current projects

• Opting out? Explaining the effectiveness of election boycotts Swedish Research Council, 2025–. With Sebastian van Baalen (project leader), Uppsala University, and Jesper Bjarnesen, the Nordic Africa Institute. We are building a global database of election boycotts, 1945–2024, to explain why boycotts occur and whether they are effective.
• DEMCOOP: Democracy, autocracy and international cooperation Stockholm Center on Global Governance, Stockholm University. I study states’ contributions to election observation missions run by international organisations, and whether autocracies and democracies differ in how they support international election monitoring. I'm also collaborating with colleagues on a survey experiment investigating how having autocracies in human rights bodies shapes the perceived legitimacy of both the IO and the country itself.

Peer-reviewed articles

• Olafsdottir, G. (2025). The conditions for reducing electoral violence through constitutional reform. Journal of Peace Research, 62(7), 2273–2289. doi:10.1177/00223433251371834
• Fjelde, H., & Olafsdottir, G. (2025). Viewing violence through a partisan lens: How electoral violence shapes citizens’ support for democracy. Government and Opposition, 60(2), 313–334. doi:10.1017/gov.2024.17
• Petrova, K., Olafsdottir, G., Hegre, H., & Gilmore, E. A. (2023). The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 18(2), 024028. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb163
• Hegre, H., Allansson, M., Basedau, M., Colaresi, M., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., Hoyles, F., Hultman, L., Högbladh, S., Jansen, R., Mouhleb, N., Muhammad, S. A., Nilsson, D., Nygård, H. M., Olafsdottir, G., Petrova, K., Randahl, D., Rød, E. G., Schneider, G., von Uexkull, N., & Vestby, J. (2019). ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. Journal of Peace Research, 56(2), 155–174. doi:10.1177/0022343319823860

Dissertation

• Olafsdottir, G. (2024). Precarious paths to democracy: Electoral violence and the struggle for democratization. PhD dissertation, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.

Reports, chapters and other writing

• Olafsdottir, G. (2025). Precarious paths to democracy: Electoral violence and the struggle for democratization. Development Dissertation Brief 2025:03. The Expert Group for Aid Studies (EBA).
• Olafsdottir, G. (2025). Election-related violence. In T. S. James, H.A. Garnett & E. Asplund (Ed.), Review of the 2024 super-cycle year of elections: Trends, challenges and opportunities. International IDEA. doi:10.31752/idea.2025.22
• Olafsdottir, G., & Kalin, I. (2025). The peace process and constitutional reforms in Turkey. SUITS Policy Brief 2025:2. Stockholm University Institute for Turkish Studies.
• Olafsdottir, G. (2024). My PhD journey. Duvan Magazine, U-Pad, December 2024, 30–33.
• Hegre, H., Petrova, K., Olafsdottir, G., & Gilmore, E. (2023). Bias in economic models ignores the impact of war in poor nations. PRIO Blogs, 3 February 2023.
• Fjelde, H., Höglund, K., Olafsdottir, G., & Renvall, T. (2021). The Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO): Codebook, version 1.0. Annex to Fjelde, H., & Höglund, K. (2022), Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO), Journal of Conflict Resolution, 66(1), 162–185. doi:10.1177/00220027211021620
• Olafsdottir, G. (2020). Promoting women’s rights: Creating conditions for post-conflict peace? WIIS Policy Brief, Women In International Security, 7 July 2020. Honourable mention, 1325 and Beyond essay contest.

Work in progress

• Van Baalen, S., Bjarnesen, J., Olafsdottir, G., Gustafsson, T., & Franz, A. Opposition by omission: The functions of election boycotts in electoral authoritarian regimes. Under review.
• Themnér, A., Fjelde, H., Olafsdottir, G., & Holm, A. Universities at risk: Organized student violence at African universities. Under review.
• Duque Salazar, J. D., & Olafsdottir, G. Striking fear in voters’ hearts: Poverty and the costs of abstention in Nigeria. Under review.
• Olafsdottir, G. Deceptive delegations: Autocratic contributions to liberal election monitoring missions.
• Van Baalen, S., Bjarnesen, J., & Olafsdottir, G. Why election boycotts may not be a bad idea.
• Schmid, J., Tallberg, J., Koliev, F., & Olafsdottir, G. The autocrat in the room: Effects of autocratic involvement in human rights IOs. Pre-analysis plan for a survey experiment.
• Olafsdottir, G. The impact of violent elections: A caveat to the democratization-by-elections thesis.
• Olafsdottir, G. Constitution-making in the midst of violence: The failure of interparty negotiations in Turkey.